Showing posts with label Joe Biden. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joe Biden. Show all posts

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Biden Buzz

CHINATOWN, New York (August 23, 2008) >> politix

The decision to select Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) is no surprise. The timing and suspense were admirably handled by the effective campaign team over at the Obamavilla. Great choice given the middle working class roots of Irish Catholic "six-pack" Joe. Scion Evan Bayh is so (just too) so-so and Tim Kaine (on his Charley Rose coming out interview) demonstrated that he was not ready for the hot lights.

Senator Biden is Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee and really knows the terrain. Former Chair of the Judiciary Comittee as well...

Biden, by the way, ranks 99th of 100 Senators in terms of wealth. If $300,000 in lobbyist money since 1997 is the worst the Republicans can dredge up, that is very good news. My primary concern was his son's hedge fund lawsuit... Everybody got something and I'm pretty sure Caroline Kennedy personally made some calls to vet that item. Biden's natural constituencies among foreign policy wogs, older folks and trade union types are helpful. Expect a non-stop tape loop on "economic anxieties." Perfect by me.

The MCM (Multinational Corporate Media) has weighed in with its usual gunk. Nothing brightens my Saturdays more than hearing William Kristol sound off with his regrets the standard of the Roman Empire doesn't fit on the White House lawn. Almost all of the McCain spokespersons were women. The Romney surrogate was as reassuring as a fresh probe of the Keating Five. Karl Rove insists Biden will be a liability because he "tends to exaggerate," "puts his foot in his mouth too often," and his tri-partite Iraqi proposal would have split that country into three pieces. What did you expect from Rove? Fox is NOT NEWS and somewhat emotionally childish in their approach.

Snarky notes follow for those who are so politically addicted they have tracked all links down to Google Search page 216. Biden reclaims his Scranton, Pennsylvania roots... Biden is 65 and has been in the U.S. Senate since he was 29... OK, Time for Change in Washington. I do like the way he is going to constanntly reference "Bush-McCain."

Biden will stay on the populist message without hitting the third rail of "bitter" class warfare. I have news in case you've been hibernating in a deep salt mine: New York City's economic flooring is collapsing and the entire state Michigan is already drowning in the Lakes. Tax deductions for corporate off-shoring HAS TO END. Say it as often as possible, please.

Note the new GOP talking face is Ms. Nancy Mitchell Pfotenhauer identified as a McCain Campaign Advisor. During the 1990s, she was an apparatchik “executive vice president for policy” on behalf of coal company Koch Industries through their front group, the Citizens for a Sound Economy. This is John Birch country and hints toward the GOP's dark cloud future. (Is that coal soot or methane from cattle lots?) Either way, it smells of trouble.

I don't need to tell Barack Obama to turn that bad dog loose. One reminder for my buddy Joe: Refresh the voters on the old Harry Truman line: "Don't vote for me - vote for yourselves!" Give 'em hell! ///

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Quick Draw McCain's Gang versus Honest Able

CHINATOWN, New York (August 20, 2008) politix

When a political party's convention stars are crony-meister Rudy Giuliani, Dick ("Halli-burden") Cheney, Roman Senator Joe LIEberman ("I, Likudius"), and The Terminator...
Who could possibly doubt the raptures are to follow the reception?!
Seriously, they call it "diversity."

Richard Clarke (former National Security Council counter-terrorism adviser) recently reminded that presumptive nominee John ("Quick-Draw") McCain pushed for war in Iraq before even President George Bush made up his mind (oxymoron there): "I'm sure he [McCain] loves his country. It's just that loving your country and lying to the American people are apparently not inconsistent in his view."

Q:: Who called Giuliani on his Orwellian-speak "noun-verb and 9-11" IDD ("intentional dumb-down") act?
A:: Senator Joe ("six-pack") Biden... Union man, I reckon. Showing up to support that yankee Honest Able...that skinny smart guy from South Side Chicago.

I'm betting against Giuliani who will neither stop pretending he's ill nor admit that he simply lacks depth and reason. Cronyism, Corruption & Incompetence! Giuliani and George Bush's FEEMA were total bluster and no muster in NYC after WTC attacks.

Who do you want in office when the next Katrina hits? They were so bad, they had to change the spelling to FEEMA: "Forget Everything Except My Ass." ///

Biden on Pakistan

CHINATOWN, New York (August 20, 2008) Politix

Last November, Joe Biden predicted that the South Carolina primary would pick the next president. He also directly answered the question: "What the hell do we do about Pakistan?" Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) replied.

"The single most significant thing that we could do to change the international environment according to most scholars is literally to empower women in countries where they're not empowered at all," he said after dealing with the latest round in the Biden-Giuliani street fight. And then, there was Pakistan -- which, unbeknownst to either of us non-Blackberry-wearing fellows, was at that very moment going down the kind of spiral that Biden had warned, in a debate four days earlier, was more frightening than Iran's furtive nuclear program. I asked him, on the heels of Karen Hughes's second departure from the Bush administration, how we worry about Pakistan as a threat while bringing up our 15% favorability rating among its people.

"You've got to have a Pakistani policy and not a Musharraf policy. This administration has a General Musharraf policy. So what you have to do is -- there's a vast majority, a significant middle of the population of Pakistan, [that] is democratic and middle-class. But what's happening is, absent free elections, you're forcing them underground, radicalizing them, and you're giving great sway to that portion of the population that's already radicalized," he said, and argued that aid to education with an eye toward economic development is more conducive to long term goals in the country."

Biden's response was to the question by Off-the-Bus's Shelby Highsmith (HuffPo Off-the-Bus) who reported it directly ("Biden: SC Will Pick the Next President" posted November 6, 2007). My commentary at the time follows.

Commentary reply to BIDEN in HuffPo nov6-07
Regarding Pakistan, Senator Biden must surely have dreaded the day that Musharraf's "emergency" came to fruition. With Islamists now controlling the Swat Valley and expanding areas in North-East Pakistan, the stakes cannot be higher. Biden knew very well the likelihood of such tension.

Biden, Edwards and Dodd are the Democratic candidates that show the most capacity to think beyond the present into the near-future difficulties that confront our next president. They recognize the interconnectedness of Iraq-Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan-Kashmir. Uzbekistan and Tadjikistan will certainly be the next fronts if Afghanistan goes badly. The Taliban resurgence is remarkable for its resilience but also for the Bush administration's failure of focus.

The Iraq War has damaged America's moral reputation, decreased our national security, and increased terrorism worldwide. That's pretty well acknowledged but Senator Biden goes deeper.
To his credit, Biden's proposal to federate Iraq into tripartite administrations is not dissimilar to Turkey's Ottoman solution (pre-WWI). As Senator Biden is aware, the British held onto Iraq for the oil and especially Kirkuk. My oppositon to the invasion was grounded in knowing that without a post-conflict solution for Kirkuk and Mosul that Sunni-Shia conflict of the worst sort was inevitable.

"We must dedicate this nation to the policy of the 'good neighbor' - the neighbor who respects his obligations and respects the sanctity of his agreements in and with a world of neighbors.” - Franklin Delano Roosevelt

That must be balanced with realistic hard choices on the part of the next American administration. ///

Saturday, August 2, 2008

VEEPSTAKES VETTING ZOO – VP PROSPECTUS

MANHATTAN (July 2008) politix ©2008 by M. Dubay

The first decision of paramount impact for presumptive nominee Sen. Barack Obama is the choice of Vice Presidential running mate. There are three integrated aspects to measure: Electability advantages, assistance in governance if/when elected, and the personality mesh. The Vetting ZOO chart [excel] includes those presently mentioned as under consideration and in the process of vetting scrutiny.

For baby boomers, the George McGovern candidacy really sank and doomed many down-ticket Democrats due to the Eagleton VP withdrawal – a fiasco of the first magnitude. More recently, most political readers recall the personality clashes and tactical differences between nominated Senators Kerry and Edwards in 2004. Was it “help or hope is on the way!” that got in the way? The response to “swiftboating” demanded naval razing rather than time-consuming navel gazing. How could “they” not have been aware that the flank attack was going to launch? No doubt, a certain stubbornness set in as turmoil inside the campaign churned.

Marc Ambinder's [[“It's Vetting Time”]] in the National Journal provides a behind-the-curtain view of the psychological nuances and potential traps for presumptive nominees of both major parties. He quotes John Kerry as revealing, “You inevitably come upon things that have never been made public.”

2000 gave us Sen. Joe Lieberman (Likud – CT) and a body of opinion exists that Gore's fatal campaign error was his choice of running mate. Senator Diane Feinstein (CA), Sen. Bob Graham (FL), Sen. Evan Bayh (IN) and Sen. John Edwards (NC) were all better choices. My own strategic recommendation at the time was to launch the Riverboat Express with Bill Clinton (as skipper and M.C.) to plow the waters of our great interior rivers. Lights, music and BBQ’d dancing girl hoopla (with prizes and free food at every stop) would have broadcast from Cincinnati to Chattanooga and on down to N'Orleans. I was serious. Blame Nader as much as you like for as long as you want but recognize that even the Revolutionary Workers Party had enough voters to tip the result. Nuff said on that.

The personality mesh affects both campaign dynamics and the sought after reins of governance. Among the top-tier possibilities, Sen. Clinton is realistically unlikely on that count alone. The naming of the ousted Patty Solis Doyle as Chief of Staff to the selected running mate is a huge sign – blinking and blaring if not blinding and deafening. Obama is most likely not comfortable with Sen. Clinton and her inner corps of cadres. One disqualifier is the linkage to Mark Penn since the “change and reform” message is a direct clash with his ilk and their expedience.

Assistance in governance is two-fold in that the voting electorate sees and hears sufficient slices of the VP candidate to judge not only a level of executive competence and gravitas but also what the Presidential candidate perceives as their need (to govern and to project through media a help to getting elected). The executive experience is why Governors have had a better chance than Senators historically.

Electability assistance includes demographic appeal, electoral weight, Party unity and media presentation of the primary candidate and their message. Certain factors are obvious as generalizations. For example, older white working-class Catholic men living in the Deep South are not amongst Obama’s strongest demographic clusters. Balance on the ticket can be helpful.

Electoral weight (as in large states get more electoral votes) balances with certain prospects that appeal to entire regions or demographics rather than their own one state. Gov. Kathleen Sibelius of Kansas (EV=5) is unlikely to deliver her own very red state but is very much in the style of Obama and could assist greatly in the bordering and attached swing states of Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and the E.V.D. of Omaha. She might be a winning complement. Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana (EV=3) is probably fairly well recognized and respected in Denver and Phoenix but not so inside the “Beltway bubble” or in the corridors of Wall Street.

The demographic appeal of Virginia Sen. Jim Webb (EV=13) or Fmr. N.C. Sen. John Edwards (EV=15) to working-class folks is well known. The Vietnam War hero and the son of the mill worker have their supporters that are not naturally (or even in some cases comfortably) Obama's constituency.

Party unity enthusiasts and realists are pointing to Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (EV=21) and Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh (EV=11). One is stronger on executive experience and the other has Senatorial foreign policy tenure. Gov. Rendell is an ardent Clintonite from the “old school” world of machine politics.

Finally, consider who looks the best on the poster with Obama. Which prospect visually emanates “CHANGE that works for you”? The [[Vetting Zoo VP Prospectus chart]] has more information on the following individuals.

Regionally, there are seven prospects from the West: Gov. Jane Napolitano of Arizona (EV=9), Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana (EV=3), Gov. (and former Clinton cabinet officer) Bill Richardson of New Mexico (EV=5), Sen. Ken Salazar of Colorado (EV=9), Gov. Sebelius of Kansas (EV=6), and Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska (EV=5). Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri (EV=11) was another early and capable Obama supporter. Sebelius’s father was governor of Ohio but whether that can be parlayed into actual votes is another matter.

The “Sons of the South” include Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas (EV=5), Tennessee's Fmr. VP Al Gore (EV=11), Virginia Sen. Jim Webb (EV=13), Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (EV=27) and Fmr. N.C. Sen. John Edwards (EV=15). Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia (EV=15) was chairman of the Military Affairs Committee and is an expert on non-proliferation. A look at the electoral map shows the six-state arc between North Carolina north and west to Michigan-Indiana as the region that can tip the balance strongly and unassailably towards a substantial Democratic majority.

Obama's Great Lakes neighbor Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana (EV=11) was also on the “short list” in 2000. From the East are New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (EV=31), Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (EV=12), Connecticut’s Sen. Chris Dodd (EV=7), Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware (EV=3), and Gov. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania (EV=21). Pennsylvania’s Representative John Murtha is also mentioned but unlikely. Obama’s difficult balance that I am observing is the necessity to evolve to a Smart Trade policy (precluding Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio (EV=20) and perhaps Edwards) while closing off the issue against McCain expressing support for “free trade.”

The military is well represented by Gen. Tony McPeak (Air Force), Admiral Anthony Zinni, Former Secretary of Navy Richard Danzig, and General James Jones as well as Ret. Gen. Wesley Clarke, Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska (EV=5), and former Army Ranger and now Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island (EV=4), plus Webb and Kerry. Sun Tze’s classic “Art of War” is clear that the decision to commit war is the most serious ever made by a head of state.

The selection scenario will tighten to the very short list of Virginia's Sen. Webb and Gov. Kaine, Gov. Sebelius of Kansas, the foreign affairs expert Sen. Biden, the unobtrusive Sen. Bayh (fresh face for decades, right?) and Fmr. Sen. Edwards waiting in the wings. Obama is hoping for all Pros and no “Cons.” At August 1, my short list is Biden, Bayh and Kaine; dark horses are Gov. Schweitzer and Wesley Clark. ///